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anonymous

  • 5 years ago

This is about Bayesian stat vs. Classical stat, or the need/importance of prior knowledge. Imagine that on a planet there are 4 individuals. it is 2 AM where they are and it is very dark. The 1st is 4 billion years old. He has observed hundreds of billion sunrises. The 2nd was born two nights ago an he has observed one sunrise The 3rd got just born at 1 AM The 4th is an alien who finished setting up the last explosive that will destroy the planet in 10 min. He has destroyed over 5000 planets. What do you think is the appropriate probability that each one should assign for a sunrise at

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  1. anonymous
    • 5 years ago
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    at 6 AM? (but the actual time of sunrise is not important. It will be hours from now)

  2. anonymous
    • 5 years ago
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    BTW this is not a test Q I made it up. I am trying to understand the Bayesian statistics.

  3. anonymous
    • 5 years ago
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    I guess the point is that the probability depends on knowledge. If the first three individuals had the knowledge of the 4th then they all will agree on the same probability. Or if the 2nd and the 3td had the knowledge of the 1st then then the 1,2, and 3 will agree on a probability based on 4 bill years of observation. etc... Bayesian stat says that the probability is subjective.

  4. anonymous
    • 5 years ago
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    If it helps. Here is the image of the 4th one.

  5. anonymous
    • 5 years ago
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