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pamelakt
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the known rate of usage of a particular illicit drug is 3% (a random sample of the population would find that 3% of the people are currently using the drug.) a test exists that will correctly identify a drug user 96% of the time. the test also misidentifies a non user (a false positive) 2% of the time. what is the probability that a person who has tested posiitive for the drug is actually a nonuser.
 3 years ago
 3 years ago
pamelakt Group Title
the known rate of usage of a particular illicit drug is 3% (a random sample of the population would find that 3% of the people are currently using the drug.) a test exists that will correctly identify a drug user 96% of the time. the test also misidentifies a non user (a false positive) 2% of the time. what is the probability that a person who has tested posiitive for the drug is actually a nonuser.
 3 years ago
 3 years ago

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3pwood Group TitleBest ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0
So for a randomly selected individual, the chance that they'll test positive is: .03*.96 + .97*.02 = .0482 (that's true positives plus false positives) The chance of getting a false positive is: .97*.02 = 0.0194 so, given that someone tests positive, the chance that it's a false positive is: .0194/.0482 = .4025 = 40.25%
 3 years ago
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