anonymous
  • anonymous
What is the probability that a state will get hit by a major tornando at least once in the next 10 years if the probability of getting hit in one year is 1/10?
Mathematics
  • Stacey Warren - Expert brainly.com
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SOLVED
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schrodinger
  • schrodinger
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anonymous
  • anonymous
poisson distribution for this one \[\lambda=0.1\]
anonymous
  • anonymous
and "at least once" means "not none" so caclulate the probability of no tornadoes and subtract the result from one
anonymous
  • anonymous
actually i think it is easier than that. since you are using a ten year period and the probability is 1/10 for one year, you can use \[\lambda =1\]

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anonymous
  • anonymous
\[P(x=0)=e^{-\lambda}=e^{-1}\]
anonymous
  • anonymous
does this look familiar or are you supposed to do it a different way?
anonymous
  • anonymous
i think your answer is \[1-e^{-1}\]
anonymous
  • anonymous
I think a different way but I'm not sure...sorry
anonymous
  • anonymous
are you using the poisson distribution? i am not sure how else you could do this one
anonymous
  • anonymous
i guess you could say they are independent, so probability of no tornadoes in any one years is \[\frac{9}{10}\] so no tornadoes 10 years in a row is \[(\frac{9}{10})^{10}\] so "at least one" in ten years is \[1-(\frac{9}{10})^{10}\] that might work better
anonymous
  • anonymous
using that method i get 0.65 as your probability
anonymous
  • anonymous
yeah that definitely looks more like what im doing haha
anonymous
  • anonymous
Thank you very much!
anonymous
  • anonymous
poisson gives 0.63 but that is more of an approximation, so stick with that one

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