anonymous
  • anonymous
Probability of injury from car trip is 1in 50K (.00002). average trips a person will take in liftime is 16K. Whats the probability of being injury? can i get help to set this up por favor!
Mathematics
  • Stacey Warren - Expert brainly.com
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SOLVED
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katieb
  • katieb
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anonymous
  • anonymous
poisson distribution for this one
anonymous
  • anonymous
what is that?
anonymous
  • anonymous
oh well if that is not clear, them maybe you are supposed to do it a different way

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anonymous
  • anonymous
im gona do a ratio of 16 to 50 and im gona in crease the numerator from taht resuilt
anonymous
  • anonymous
multiply 16,000 by 0.00002 and get .32
anonymous
  • anonymous
i got 3.125 to 16000, hope its right. hah
anonymous
  • anonymous
no i don't think so
anonymous
  • anonymous
oh wait. your right. your way makes more sense.
anonymous
  • anonymous
this is a set up for poisson distribution, because the probabiliy is very small and the number of "experiments' miles driven is very large multiply them together and get .32 probability you have no accidents is \[e^{-.32}\]
anonymous
  • anonymous
and so the probabilty you have at least one accident is \[1-e^{-.32}\]
anonymous
  • anonymous
im trying to find prob of yes getting injured tho.
anonymous
  • anonymous
yes, so compute the probability of no accidents, which is \[e^{-.32}\] so the probability of getting at least one accident is \[1-e^{-.32}\]
anonymous
  • anonymous
dang bro, thats way ahead of me. but thansk anyways
anonymous
  • anonymous
you could also compute \((99998)^{160000}\) and subtract that from 1
anonymous
  • anonymous
that is the probability you do not get in an accident on one trip, to the power of the number of trips, and that will get the probability you get no accidents. subtract from one to get the probability that there is at least one accident
anonymous
  • anonymous
OH!! so its 1 minus .32 or .68% .. i was thinking it was 32% which was confusing me.
anonymous
  • anonymous
actually i think that is not right. let me check with a calculator
anonymous
  • anonymous
this is what i thin it is http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%28.00002%29^16000
anonymous
  • anonymous
almost identitcal to firt answer i wrote http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=1-e^%28-.32%29
anonymous
  • anonymous
alrite cool. thanks dude.
anonymous
  • anonymous
yw
anonymous
  • anonymous
The problem is an example of risk over time, which we discussed on Monday. You need to multiply the probability of one event by the total number of times it is likely to occur to calculate a life time risk. Your calculations below are for successive events not cumulative events.
anonymous
  • anonymous
thats what the teacher said. i have no idea what the hell she is saying. lol
anonymous
  • anonymous
haha, its just 1 divided by 16000 dude. wtf were we doin? lol

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