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mr.luna

Probability of injury from car trip is 1in 50K (.00002). average trips a person will take in liftime is 16K. Whats the probability of being injury? can i get help to set this up por favor!

  • 2 years ago
  • 2 years ago

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  1. satellite73
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    poisson distribution for this one

    • 2 years ago
  2. mr.luna
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    what is that?

    • 2 years ago
  3. satellite73
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    oh well if that is not clear, them maybe you are supposed to do it a different way

    • 2 years ago
  4. mr.luna
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    im gona do a ratio of 16 to 50 and im gona in crease the numerator from taht resuilt

    • 2 years ago
  5. satellite73
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    multiply 16,000 by 0.00002 and get .32

    • 2 years ago
  6. mr.luna
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    i got 3.125 to 16000, hope its right. hah

    • 2 years ago
  7. satellite73
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    no i don't think so

    • 2 years ago
  8. mr.luna
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    oh wait. your right. your way makes more sense.

    • 2 years ago
  9. satellite73
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    this is a set up for poisson distribution, because the probabiliy is very small and the number of "experiments' miles driven is very large multiply them together and get .32 probability you have no accidents is \[e^{-.32}\]

    • 2 years ago
  10. satellite73
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    and so the probabilty you have at least one accident is \[1-e^{-.32}\]

    • 2 years ago
  11. mr.luna
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    im trying to find prob of yes getting injured tho.

    • 2 years ago
  12. satellite73
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    yes, so compute the probability of no accidents, which is \[e^{-.32}\] so the probability of getting at least one accident is \[1-e^{-.32}\]

    • 2 years ago
  13. mr.luna
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    dang bro, thats way ahead of me. but thansk anyways

    • 2 years ago
  14. satellite73
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    you could also compute \((99998)^{160000}\) and subtract that from 1

    • 2 years ago
  15. satellite73
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    that is the probability you do not get in an accident on one trip, to the power of the number of trips, and that will get the probability you get no accidents. subtract from one to get the probability that there is at least one accident

    • 2 years ago
  16. mr.luna
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    OH!! so its 1 minus .32 or .68% .. i was thinking it was 32% which was confusing me.

    • 2 years ago
  17. satellite73
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    actually i think that is not right. let me check with a calculator

    • 2 years ago
  18. satellite73
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    this is what i thin it is http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%28.00002%29^16000

    • 2 years ago
  19. satellite73
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    almost identitcal to firt answer i wrote http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=1-e^%28-.32%29

    • 2 years ago
  20. mr.luna
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    alrite cool. thanks dude.

    • 2 years ago
  21. satellite73
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    yw

    • 2 years ago
  22. mr.luna
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    The problem is an example of risk over time, which we discussed on Monday. You need to multiply the probability of one event by the total number of times it is likely to occur to calculate a life time risk. Your calculations below are for successive events not cumulative events.

    • 2 years ago
  23. mr.luna
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    thats what the teacher said. i have no idea what the hell she is saying. lol

    • 2 years ago
  24. mr.luna
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    haha, its just 1 divided by 16000 dude. wtf were we doin? lol

    • 2 years ago
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