## mr.luna 3 years ago Probability of injury from car trip is 1in 50K (.00002). average trips a person will take in liftime is 16K. Whats the probability of being injury? can i get help to set this up por favor!

1. satellite73

poisson distribution for this one

2. mr.luna

what is that?

3. satellite73

oh well if that is not clear, them maybe you are supposed to do it a different way

4. mr.luna

im gona do a ratio of 16 to 50 and im gona in crease the numerator from taht resuilt

5. satellite73

multiply 16,000 by 0.00002 and get .32

6. mr.luna

i got 3.125 to 16000, hope its right. hah

7. satellite73

no i don't think so

8. mr.luna

oh wait. your right. your way makes more sense.

9. satellite73

this is a set up for poisson distribution, because the probabiliy is very small and the number of "experiments' miles driven is very large multiply them together and get .32 probability you have no accidents is \[e^{-.32}\]

10. satellite73

and so the probabilty you have at least one accident is \[1-e^{-.32}\]

11. mr.luna

im trying to find prob of yes getting injured tho.

12. satellite73

yes, so compute the probability of no accidents, which is \[e^{-.32}\] so the probability of getting at least one accident is \[1-e^{-.32}\]

13. mr.luna

dang bro, thats way ahead of me. but thansk anyways

14. satellite73

you could also compute \((99998)^{160000}\) and subtract that from 1

15. satellite73

that is the probability you do not get in an accident on one trip, to the power of the number of trips, and that will get the probability you get no accidents. subtract from one to get the probability that there is at least one accident

16. mr.luna

OH!! so its 1 minus .32 or .68% .. i was thinking it was 32% which was confusing me.

17. satellite73

actually i think that is not right. let me check with a calculator

18. satellite73

this is what i thin it is http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%28.00002%29^16000

19. satellite73

almost identitcal to firt answer i wrote http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=1-e^%28-.32%29

20. mr.luna

alrite cool. thanks dude.

21. satellite73

yw

22. mr.luna

The problem is an example of risk over time, which we discussed on Monday. You need to multiply the probability of one event by the total number of times it is likely to occur to calculate a life time risk. Your calculations below are for successive events not cumulative events.

23. mr.luna

thats what the teacher said. i have no idea what the hell she is saying. lol

24. mr.luna

haha, its just 1 divided by 16000 dude. wtf were we doin? lol

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