An architect is considering bidding for the design of a new shopping mall. The cost of drawing plans and submitting a model is $10,000. The probability of being awarded the bid is 0.13, and the anticipated profits are $100,000. What is the expected value in this situation? is it 3000? I did 100,000-10,000=90,000 -10,000(0.87)+90,000(0.13)=3,000?
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I am not too sure about this but I believe the answer should be $11700? because the expected value of the bidding design of $3000 shouldn't be lower than it's cost and plans. I'm not too sure on this one.
@apoorvk can you verify? ;D
11,700 is an option too. A $11,700 B $12,000 C $13,000 D $3,000
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@monroe17 your explanation and answer seem pretty correct to me, still @Callisto would know probability and stuff better. (Am having trouble regarding 'expected value' means in this context).
Save me Callisto:D
hmm, anything? :)
@ash2326 to the rescue!
LOL, lets call everyone lmao.
Lets DO IT! ;) I feel like this question isn't even really that hard though?
@experimentX @Diyadiya @dpaInc !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
expected value of what??
According to Wiki, Expected value = amount paid x P(lose) + payoff x P(win) = -10000 x (1-0.13) + (100000-10000) x (0.13) = -10000 x 0.87 + 90000 x 0.13 = 3000 If I got the term 'payoff' correct, then that's it. Source: wiki
The first one is about the probability of loss the game. The second one is about the probability of winning it. But to win it, you have a price to pay. So, you need to subtract it from the amount you get to get the net profit. I guess only.
Welcome. Sorry I had some other things to do and was not able to reply.