anonymous
  • anonymous
PLEASE HELP!!!! Please explain why this is FALSE: "5. Using data from Boston, Massachusetts, a test of independence is run on the claim that ice cream sales per month and the number of car wrecks per month are independent. The claim is rejected. Using number of car wrecks as the x variable and ice cream sales as the y variable, an r value of r=0.923 is then computed and shown to exceed the critical value for this data. The data is double checked and verified. This shows that car wrecks cause ice cream sales."
Mathematics
jamiebookeater
  • jamiebookeater
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jim_thompson5910
  • jim_thompson5910
That r value is the key here
jim_thompson5910
  • jim_thompson5910
usually when it's this high (regardless of the critical value), it implies there's a strong correlation between the two variables
anonymous
  • anonymous
Okay

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anonymous
  • anonymous
Oh, yes - I do remember learning that.
jim_thompson5910
  • jim_thompson5910
a strong correlation corresponds to the two variables being linked (one is independent and the other is dependent on that independent variable)
anonymous
  • anonymous
Makes sense, so far.
jim_thompson5910
  • jim_thompson5910
so they can't be independent if they are linked like this
jim_thompson5910
  • jim_thompson5910
that's why the claim that they are independent is rejected
anonymous
  • anonymous
Oh, I think I see what you're meaning - because the correlation (relationship) between "x" and "y" is so strong, both variables are dependent on each other, so it is not possible that they could be independent of each other?
jim_thompson5910
  • jim_thompson5910
that is close, it's more like "one variable dictates what the other variable is...so one variable is independent while the other depends on the first variable"
anonymous
  • anonymous
Okay
jim_thompson5910
  • jim_thompson5910
but yes, they are linked in a way that they can't be independent of each other
anonymous
  • anonymous
So, if the problem IS correct to have rejected the claim, what part of the problem is incorrect?
jim_thompson5910
  • jim_thompson5910
I'm not sure what you mean
jim_thompson5910
  • jim_thompson5910
oh i know what you're asking
anonymous
  • anonymous
Well, the instructions for the problem say it is false. I'm supposed to explain why it's false.
jim_thompson5910
  • jim_thompson5910
this is a very dangerous part of statistics because students often confuse correlation and causation
jim_thompson5910
  • jim_thompson5910
this is very important not to mix the two
jim_thompson5910
  • jim_thompson5910
if two variables are strongly correlated with each other, it doesn't necessarily mean that one causes the other
anonymous
  • anonymous
I should probably let you know that the last part of the problem says: NOTE: While this specific r-value is made up, this general pattern has been shown in several real world data sets involving ice cream sales and number of car wrecks in major cities on the east coast of the United States.
jim_thompson5910
  • jim_thompson5910
ie correlation does NOT imply causation
anonymous
  • anonymous
I'm not sure if the NOTE is true or false (I don't know if my professor is saying that this part is false or true.
jim_thompson5910
  • jim_thompson5910
just because they both tend to decrease (for instance), doesn't mean that one causes the other to decrease as it decreases
jim_thompson5910
  • jim_thompson5910
does that make sense?
anonymous
  • anonymous
Yes! Thank you so much! I really appreciate that you took your time to help me! :) I understand it.
jim_thompson5910
  • jim_thompson5910
you're welcome

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