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soccergal12 Group Title

A certain flower can be white or blue and may or may not have fragrance. Suppose blue flowers are extremely rare and that the rate of blue flowers in the population is 1/400 flowers. Consider the following data. Fragrant Not Fragrant Total Sampled White 500 500 1000 Blue 2 8 10 If we happen to smell a randomly selected fragrant flower, what is the probability it is blue?

  • one year ago
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  1. kropot72 Group Title
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    Rate of white flowers in population = 399/400 flowers = 798/800 flowers Rate of fragrant white flowers in population = \[\frac{798}{800}\times \frac{1}{2}=\frac{399}{800}\] Rate of blue flowers in population = 1/400 flowers = 2/800 flowers Rate of fragrant blue flowers in population = \[\frac{2}{800}\times \frac{1}{5}=\frac{2}{5}\times \frac{1}{800}\] Rate of fragrant white plus blue flowers in population = (399 + 2/5)/800 flowers \[P(blue\ fragrant)=\frac{\frac{2}{5}}{399+\frac{2}{5}}\]

    • one year ago
  2. soccergal12 Group Title
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    how did you come up with the 798/800 ?

    • one year ago
  3. soccergal12 Group Title
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    i mean the 399/400*

    • one year ago
  4. kropot72 Group Title
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    It is given that the rate of blue flowers in the population is 1/400 flowers. Therefore on average out of 400 flowers 1 is blue and 400 - 1 = 399 are white. So the rate of white flowers (fragrant + not fragrant) in the population is 399/400.

    • one year ago
  5. soccergal12 Group Title
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    oh okay, that makes sense. thank you!

    • one year ago
  6. kropot72 Group Title
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    You're welcome. Please let me know if you need more clarification.

    • one year ago
  7. soccergal12 Group Title
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    do you need to double the rate, ie. 399/400 to 798/800 ?

    • one year ago
  8. kropot72 Group Title
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    The rate is the same when the numerator and denominator are both multiplied by 2. 399/400 = 798/800. I increased the reference quantity from 'per 400 flowers' to 'per 800 flowers' to avoid having 199.5/400 at the next step. It looks better to see 399/800, although: 199.5/400 = 399/800.

    • one year ago
  9. soccergal12 Group Title
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    oh okay, thank you

    • one year ago
  10. kropot72 Group Title
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    You're welcome :)

    • one year ago
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