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okayletussee
suppose there are three caskets.casket 1 contains 3 gold coins.casket2 contains 1 gold and 1 silver coin.Casket 3 contains 2 silver coins.Suppose you choose one casket and draw a coin at random.If the coin is a gold coin what is the probability that the second coin in the casket is gold? is also a gold
it would have a chance of being golden
The condition "If the coin is a gold coin......" restricts the sampling to a subset of the 3 caskets. The subset is the two boxes that have at least one gold coin. The probability that the randomly selected casket with at least one gold coin has 3 gold coins is 1/2. Therefore the probability that the second coin in the casket is also gold is 1/2.