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 2 years ago
I have a homework problem that I got wrong, and I'm trying to understand why. It's an application of Bayes Rule  we are trying to determine the posterior probability of I, after three tests  2 positive, and 1 negative.
If I want to know P(I+,+,), I understand that
P(I+,+,) = P(+,+,I)*P(I)/P(+,+,)
When I tried to figure this out, I changed this to
P(+I)*P(+I)*P(I)*P(I)/(P(+I)*P(+I)*P(I)*P(I)+P(+_I)*P(+_I)*P(_I)*P(_I))
But that was incorrect. For the correct solution, they just figured out P(+), which was P(+I)*P(I)+P(+_I)*P(_I), and used P(+)*P(+)*P()
 2 years ago
I have a homework problem that I got wrong, and I'm trying to understand why. It's an application of Bayes Rule  we are trying to determine the posterior probability of I, after three tests  2 positive, and 1 negative. If I want to know P(I+,+,), I understand that P(I+,+,) = P(+,+,I)*P(I)/P(+,+,) When I tried to figure this out, I changed this to P(+I)*P(+I)*P(I)*P(I)/(P(+I)*P(+I)*P(I)*P(I)+P(+_I)*P(+_I)*P(_I)*P(_I)) But that was incorrect. For the correct solution, they just figured out P(+), which was P(+I)*P(I)+P(+_I)*P(_I), and used P(+)*P(+)*P()

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