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JimQ

  • one year ago

Problem: IRS will audit 2 million taxpayers. Plus 1 million taxpayers will be audited by mail. Assume 100 million total taxpayers. Find the probability that in a random sample of 50 taxpayers there will be one audit and one mail-audit. My approach: For the audit: Used Poisson distribution with mu = 1 and x = 1. P(1) = 1^1 * e^(-1) / 1! = 0.368. For the mail-audit, I assumed the audit and mail-audit are independent, so I can use Poisson again with mu = 0.5 and x = 1. I get 0.303. For both events, multiply, yielding 0.112. What if I assume that the IRS will exclude auditees from mail-a

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  1. perl
    • one year ago
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    hmm , does the problem say to use Poisson

  2. JimQ
    • one year ago
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    Not explicitly, but based on the section where the problem was presented and the rules given in the text, it seems that Poisson was an acceptable approximation to the Binomial. n = 50. Although p = 0.01 is a little close to zero.

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