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marigirl
 one year ago
An amateur meteorologist has studied weather patterns for several years, and has determined that id it is fine one day, the probability that is fine the next day is 4/5; whereas if it is wet, the probability that the next day is wet is 1/4. If it is fine one Monday, what is the probability that it is wet on Friday?
marigirl
 one year ago
An amateur meteorologist has studied weather patterns for several years, and has determined that id it is fine one day, the probability that is fine the next day is 4/5; whereas if it is wet, the probability that the next day is wet is 1/4. If it is fine one Monday, what is the probability that it is wet on Friday?

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jim_thompson5910
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.1If the weather is fine on Monday, what is the probability it is fine on Tuesday?

jim_thompson5910
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.1so we have this probability tree so far dw:1438843602331:dw

jim_thompson5910
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.1if we extend things out to wednesday, we get dw:1438843710283:dw

jim_thompson5910
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.1hopefully you agree and got these same values?

marigirl
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0Yes. So is it fine monday to Thursday and wet Friday

jim_thompson5910
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.1oh wait I messed up the table, one sec

jim_thompson5910
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.1ok fixed dw:1438844172501:dw

jim_thompson5910
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.1hmm now that I look through this more, a table is going to get very messy as we get to fri here's a better approach  P(fine on monday) = 1 P(fine on tuesday) = 4/5 P(fine on wednesday) = P(fine on tuesday)*(4/5) + P(wet on tuesday)*(3/4) P(fine on wednesday) = (4/5)*(4/5) + (1/5)*(3/4) P(fine on wednesday) = 0.79 P(fine on thursday) = P(fine on wednesday)*(4/5) + P(wet on wednesday)*(3/4) P(fine on thursday) = (0.79)*(4/5) + (0.21)*(3/4) P(fine on thursday) = 0.7895 P(fine on friday) = P(fine on thursday)*(4/5) + P(wet on thursday)*(3/4) P(fine on friday) = (0.7895)*(4/5) + (0.2105)*(3/4) P(fine on friday) = 0.789475 P(wet on friday) = 1  0.789475 P(wet on friday) = 0.210525

marigirl
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0Thanks heaps I started to draw a tree diagram too. I really appreciate your time

jim_thompson5910
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.1I was halfway through drawing it and scrapped it lol. It went off the page. You're welcome.
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