A man writes letters to one of two newspapers: the Argus and the Beacon. If a newspaper publishes one of his letters he sends the next one to the same newspaper; if not, he tries the other newspaper next time. The probablility that the Argus published one of his letters is 0.6 whereas for the Beacon it is 0.75. If he tosses a fair coin to decide where to send his first letter, calculate the probability that the third letter is send to Argus and his fourth letter send to Beacon.

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draw a probability tree

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