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- marigirl

A man writes letters to one of two newspapers: the Argus and the Beacon. If a newspaper publishes one of his letters he sends the next one to the same newspaper; if not, he tries the other newspaper next time. The probablility that the Argus published one of his letters is 0.6 whereas for the Beacon it is 0.75. If he tosses a fair coin to decide where to send his first letter, calculate the probability that the third letter is send to Argus and his fourth letter send to Beacon.
Can you help me with starting the tree diagram please

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- marigirl

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- marigirl

His first letter can be sent to A (0.5) or B (0.5). Do we consider that too at the beginning of tree diagram

- phi

yes

- marigirl

I don't quite understand what is meant by ' If a newspaper publishes one of his letters he will send next one to same newspaper if not tries the other one next time'

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- phi

it will take me a few minutes to make sense of it.

- marigirl

can u check my tree diagram plz ill draw it now

- marigirl

|dw:1438893491483:dw|

- phi

ok. AP means A published and AP' means A does not publish
if A is published, then you send the next letter (letter #2) to A
if AP' then you send letter #2 to B

- phi

it is a confusing tree because we have to keep track of where we send the next letter, and whether it was published.

- marigirl

if AP then next letter gets sent to A . is the prob for that 1?

- phi

I am tempted to write it this way
|dw:1438893877024:dw|

- marigirl

great, then i will add up all the possibilities of when the 3rd letter was sent to A

- phi

you have to extend this to the 4th letter, so the tree will get quite large.

- marigirl

thanks :)

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