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made a good decision? why or why not?

this is a series of questions

what is probability of b given a

P(B l A)

okay what is B and A

in the question

last two lines

P(B|A) means A given B or B given A?

b given a

okay so chance the forecast predicts right given it rains then

when it rains, the forecast correctly predicts rain 90% of the time.

P(B|A)=0.9=90%

a formula for P(B l A) is that is P(A intersection B) times P(A) all divided by P(B)

?

no not times P(A) formula above

how did you figure out that the second thing was that

P(B|A)=P(a n b)/P(b)
like that?

yeah

because the statement is already telling us what we want

no

P(A) at bottom

how did you know it was it

oh sry ya p(a) bottom

P(B|A) is asking the probability of B given A
probability of rain prediction when it rains

oh

now what is P(A)

now what is P(A)

3% chance it rains on a day in june

is a?

ya

\[P \left( a ^{c} \right)\]
is what

.97?

|dw:1441061445919:dw|

or100%-3%= 1-0.03

yes compliment raining is not raining, which is 97%

P(B l A complement) is?

that means chance of prediction when there is no rain

|dw:1441061765626:dw|

5%?

yeah

\[P(A) \times P(B l A) + P(A ^{c}) \times P(B l A ^{c})=P(B)\]

|dw:1441062094509:dw|

a complement we said was .97

yeah

so what are the question marks

when it does not rain, the forecast predits 95% of the time it wont rain and 5% it will rain

that what it means by 5% wrong prediction when it does not rain

|dw:1441062757048:dw|

thanks for the help

|dw:1441062793507:dw|

this is the full break down

60%

bayes' theorem

thanks for helping dan

wait i got 36% lemme see

60% is what i got

what did u say p(b) was

P(B) is .0755

look at my sheet posted pic

hard to read, what did u say P(B|A) was then

.9

\[\frac{ 90 }{ 151 }\]

it rounds to 60%

|dw:1441064489549:dw|

what is the fill in

|dw:1441064723752:dw|

use that

?

okay that is for 1 day

you do the same thing for 10,000 days

|dw:1441064976470:dw|

|dw:1441065024308:dw|

fill it in

after u fill it in we can go over how to find it will rain given rain prediction if u still have to

got it done thanks