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Trisaba
 one year ago
the principal of a school plans a school picnic for June 2. a few days before the event, the weather forecast predicts rain for June 2, so the principle decides to cancel the picnic. consider the following information.
in the school's town, the probability that it rains on any day in June is 3%.
when it rains, the forecast correctly predicts rain 90% of the time.
when it does not rain, the forecast incorrectly predicts rain 5% of the time.
let event a be the event that it rains on a day in June. let event b be the event that the forecast predicts rain. do you think the principal...
Trisaba
 one year ago
the principal of a school plans a school picnic for June 2. a few days before the event, the weather forecast predicts rain for June 2, so the principle decides to cancel the picnic. consider the following information. in the school's town, the probability that it rains on any day in June is 3%. when it rains, the forecast correctly predicts rain 90% of the time. when it does not rain, the forecast incorrectly predicts rain 5% of the time. let event a be the event that it rains on a day in June. let event b be the event that the forecast predicts rain. do you think the principal...

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Trisaba
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0made a good decision? why or why not?

Trisaba
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0this is a series of questions

Trisaba
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0what is probability of b given a

dan815
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.1P(BA) means A given B or B given A?

dan815
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.1okay so chance the forecast predicts right given it rains then

dan815
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.1when it rains, the forecast correctly predicts rain 90% of the time.

Trisaba
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0a formula for P(B l A) is that is P(A intersection B) times P(A) all divided by P(B)

Trisaba
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0no not times P(A) formula above

Trisaba
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0how did you figure out that the second thing was that

dan815
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.1P(BA)=P(a n b)/P(b) like that?

dan815
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.1because the statement is already telling us what we want

Trisaba
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0how did you know it was it

dan815
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.1P(BA) is asking the probability of B given A probability of rain prediction when it rains

dan815
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.1and this statement is giving you the answer "when it rains, the forecast correctly predicts rain 90% of the time. "

dan815
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.13% chance it rains on a day in june

Trisaba
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0\[P \left( a ^{c} \right)\] is what

dan815
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.1yes compliment raining is not raining, which is 97%

Trisaba
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0P(B l A complement) is?

dan815
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.1that means chance of prediction when there is no rain

Trisaba
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0\[P(A) \times P(B l A) + P(A ^{c}) \times P(B l A ^{c})=P(B)\]

Trisaba
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0a complement we said was .97

Trisaba
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0so what are the question marks

dan815
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.1when it does not rain, the forecast predits 95% of the time it wont rain and 5% it will rain

dan815
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.1that what it means by 5% wrong prediction when it does not rain

dan815
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.1this is the full break down

dan815
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.1they will probably ask u a final question like the chance it will rain, when there is a prediction of rain

Trisaba
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0thanks for helping dan

dan815
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.1wait i got 36% lemme see

dan815
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.1okay think about it like this out of every 97 days, 5% of those days say it will rain, and it wont rain out of every 3 days, 90% of those days say it will rain, and it will rain! what is the total number of days it will rain to not raining then?

dan815
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.10.03*0.9 : 0.05*0.97 this means that (0.03*0.9)/((0.03*0.9)+(0.05*0.97)) = chance it rains when it say it rains

dan815
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.1what did u say p(b) was

Trisaba
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0look at my sheet posted pic

dan815
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.1hard to read, what did u say P(BA) was then

Trisaba
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0\[\frac{ 90 }{ 151 }\]

dan815
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.1hmm i am not seeing anything wrong with the way im finding the answer, ill think about this more later but for now for every 100 days 3 days really rain 90% of 3 days is 2.7 so every 2.7 days out of the 3 days it rains, it will predict right now an additional bad predictions of 5% of 97 days is thrown in there 0.05*97=4.85 right preiction and rain = 2.7 total prediction of rainy days = 4.85+2.7 therefore 2.7/(4.85+2.7)= ~36%

dan815
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.1you do the same thing for 10,000 days

dan815
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.1after u fill it in we can go over how to find it will rain given rain prediction if u still have to
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