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An explosion at a construction site could have occurred as the result of static electricity, malfunctioning of equipment, carelessness or sabotage. Inter-views with construction engineers analysing the risks involved led to the estimates that such an explosion would occur with probability 0.25 as a result of static electricity, 0.20 as a result of malfunctioning of equipment, 0.40 as a result of carelessness and 0.75 as a result of sabotage. It is also felt the prior probabilities of the four causes of the explosion are 0.20, 0.40, 0.25 and 0.15. Based on all the information....

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