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Pulsified333
 one year ago
Transplant operations have become routine. One common transplant operation is for kidneys. The most dangerous aspect of the procedure is the possibility that the body may reject the new organ. There are several new drugs available for such circumstances and the earlier the drug is administered, the higher the probability of averting rejection. The New England Journal of Medicine recently reported the development of a new urine test to detect early warning signs that the body is rejecting a transplanted kidney. However, like most other tests, the new test is not perfect. In fact, 20% of negative tests and 6% of positive tests prove to be incorrect. Physicians know that in about 32% of kidney transplants the body tries to reject the organ. If the new test has a positive result (indicating early warning of rejection), what is the probability that the body is attempting to reject the kidney?
Pulsified333
 one year ago
Transplant operations have become routine. One common transplant operation is for kidneys. The most dangerous aspect of the procedure is the possibility that the body may reject the new organ. There are several new drugs available for such circumstances and the earlier the drug is administered, the higher the probability of averting rejection. The New England Journal of Medicine recently reported the development of a new urine test to detect early warning signs that the body is rejecting a transplanted kidney. However, like most other tests, the new test is not perfect. In fact, 20% of negative tests and 6% of positive tests prove to be incorrect. Physicians know that in about 32% of kidney transplants the body tries to reject the organ. If the new test has a positive result (indicating early warning of rejection), what is the probability that the body is attempting to reject the kidney?

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Pulsified333
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0@satellite73 @dan815

anonymous
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0kind of wordy isn't it? probably a bayes formula question lets see if we can cut through the verbiage

anonymous
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0this stuff is usually confusing as hell one way to break through the confusion is to forget about probability and percents, and work with nice large whole numbers to see what is going on

anonymous
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0lets say 10,000 people have the transplant how many try to reject the kidney?

anonymous
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0and how many don't ?

anonymous
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.020% of negative tests prove to be incorrect. how many is that?

anonymous
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.020% of negative tests are incorrect that means out of the 3200 people who DO reject, the test is negative and wrong

Pulsified333
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0so thats not the answer?

anonymous
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0what is 20% of 3200?

anonymous
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0those are the people who have a negative nest that is right

anonymous
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0now for the next part

Pulsified333
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0so is what I did wrong?

anonymous
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0wait i think i might have done something wrong, the posiive negative business is confusing lets back up a sec

anonymous
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.06800 do not reject 3200 do reject

anonymous
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0out of the the 3200 who do reject, 640 get the wrong answer (negative) and 2560 get the right answer

Pulsified333
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0so I have the answer in the work I did earlier

anonymous
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0no not yet, and i still got myself confused, damn we need to work the the 6% now

anonymous
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0ok we are good of the 6800 who do not reject 6% get the wrong answer (positive) so 408 get a positive

anonymous
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0now we can finish (thank god)

anonymous
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0If the new test has a positive result (indicating early warning of rejection), what is the probability that the body is attempting to reject the kidney? it is the number of people who do reject and test positive, divided by all that test positive

anonymous
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0the number that test positive (if i did it correctly) is 2560+408

anonymous
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0and the number of people who test positive and have it is 2560

anonymous
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0now we can try this using bayes formula and not numbers if you like just working with the percents as decimals

Pulsified333
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0Pr(AB) = (Pr(BA)Pr(A))/Pr(B)

anonymous
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0we need the percent of people that you test positive and have it, which is \[.32\times .80\]

anonymous
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0that is your numerator

anonymous
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0and you need percent who test positive \[.32\times .80+.68\times .06\]

anonymous
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0should be the same answer

anonymous
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2560%2F%282560%2B408%29

anonymous
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0i made a typo in the first one http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%28.32*.80%29%2F%28.32*.80%2B.06*.68%29

Pulsified333
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0:D it worked thanks.

Pulsified333
 one year ago
Best ResponseYou've already chosen the best response.0I have to finish as fast as I can so that I can study for my midterm tomorrow
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