Your favorite team is in the World Series. You have assigned a probability of 64% that they will win the championship. Past records indicate that when teams win the championship, they win the first game of the series 67% of the time. When they lose the championship, they win the first game 23% of the time. The first game is over and your team has lost. What is the probability that they will win the World Series?
Probability =

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another bayes' to make my head spin

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