You ask a neighbor to water a sickly plant while you are on vacation. Without water the plant will die with probability 0.85. With water it will die with probability 0.4. You are 86 % certain the neighbor will remember to water the plant. You come back from the vacation and the plant is dead. What is the probability that the plant died because neighbor forgot to water it?

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You ask a neighbor to water a sickly plant while you are on vacation. Without water the plant will die with probability 0.85. With water it will die with probability 0.4. You are 86 % certain the neighbor will remember to water the plant. You come back from the vacation and the plant is dead. What is the probability that the plant died because neighbor forgot to water it?

Mathematics
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At vero eos et accusamus et iusto odio dignissimos ducimus qui blanditiis praesentium voluptatum deleniti atque corrupti quos dolores et quas molestias excepturi sint occaecati cupiditate non provident, similique sunt in culpa qui officia deserunt mollitia animi, id est laborum et dolorum fuga. Et harum quidem rerum facilis est et expedita distinctio. Nam libero tempore, cum soluta nobis est eligendi optio cumque nihil impedit quo minus id quod maxime placeat facere possimus, omnis voluptas assumenda est, omnis dolor repellendus. Itaque earum rerum hic tenetur a sapiente delectus, ut aut reiciendis voluptatibus maiores alias consequatur aut perferendis doloribus asperiores repellat.

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|dw:1444111732347:dw|
okay so this plant died u are in dead space now

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Other answers:

|dw:1444111816638:dw|
|dw:1444111829884:dw|
right
same as the pr(B|b) question from earlier
can i show you what I did?
|dw:1444111893768:dw|
(.34*.85)/((.34*.85)+(.6*.86)
wait why .14?
i want to see tthe chance he didnt remember and died
oh
so (not remember and died )/died
heres a way to picture it
|dw:1444112105940:dw|
|dw:1444112143861:dw|
now u wanna know the change he forgot and it died
the answer is wrong
chance
look at the picture
yeah I am
so there u have the 2 areas with the dead face in that thats the space u are look at
Got it :D thanks man

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