## Pulsified333 one year ago You ask a neighbor to water a sickly plant while you are on vacation. Without water the plant will die with probability 0.85. With water it will die with probability 0.4. You are 86 % certain the neighbor will remember to water the plant. You come back from the vacation and the plant is dead. What is the probability that the plant died because neighbor forgot to water it?

1. Pulsified333

@dan815

2. dan815

|dw:1444111732347:dw|

3. dan815

okay so this plant died u are in dead space now

4. dan815

|dw:1444111816638:dw|

5. dan815

|dw:1444111829884:dw|

6. Pulsified333

right

7. dan815

same as the pr(B|b) question from earlier

8. Pulsified333

can i show you what I did?

9. dan815

|dw:1444111893768:dw|

10. Pulsified333

(.34*.85)/((.34*.85)+(.6*.86)

11. Pulsified333

wait why .14?

12. dan815

i want to see tthe chance he didnt remember and died

13. Pulsified333

oh

14. dan815

so (not remember and died )/died

15. dan815

heres a way to picture it

16. dan815

|dw:1444112105940:dw|

17. dan815

|dw:1444112143861:dw|

18. dan815

now u wanna know the change he forgot and it died

19. Pulsified333

the answer is wrong

20. dan815

chance

21. dan815

look at the picture

22. Pulsified333

yeah I am

23. dan815

so there u have the 2 areas with the dead face in that thats the space u are look at

24. Pulsified333

Got it :D thanks man